Heat In California - (First Blog Before I Changed District)

Since 1998 the first district of California has been a Democratic district, and for more than ten years incumbent and Democrat Mike Thompson has held the seat for 5 terms and has now set his sights on a 6^th term in office. Rep. Thompson has easily won the elections and has had little or no problem trouble holding his seats when contested. Voters of the 1^st district have come out to vote for Rep. Thompson in droves, as he has received more than 65% of the votes in the last 8 years.

Challenger and Republican Loren Hanks is seeking to defeat incumbent Mike Thompson, and claim the seat for the Republican Party. Hanks is a retired Air Force Officer from the Reagan Era, and his agenda
features the typical conservative ideals and agenda that the government is spending too much. He feels that “big government agenda have put our economy, our prosperity and our freedoms in jeopardy,” and he believes he is the candidate to bring the 1^st district out of unemployment, towards better immigration reform and a smaller government.

This lections should be an interesting one because of the fact that republicans across the nation have been picking up steam and the democrats have been losing points in the polls. But the 1^st district of California has been a predominately democratic district for the past 12 years, with Rep. Mike Thompson at the helm. He has a great track record with his district, winning reelections by a landslide the past 8 years. Overall this election will come down to whom convinces the constituents that they are a better fit for the house seat. Hanks has more ground to cover being the challenger and going against an established representative with a fan base and a track record

Drawing the Line

Redistricting is the process of redrawing state legislative and congressional political borders of its electoral districts and constituencies every 10 years based on the results of decennial U.S. census. Redistricting is very important in the U.S. politics, especially for state representatives because it changes how large or small their district will be and can potentially rearrange the political atmosphere of the district. By changing the lines of a district you can increase or decrease the number of people within a specific party in that district. People of similar political alignment tend to group together, so by changing the lines, the political energy can shift also. Now there are strict laws against how districts are rearranged, but there is still always a chance of political parties will do some form of gerrymandering to the district.

Red State...Blue State

Gerrymandering is the illegal practice of drawing district lines to the benefit of one’s political party, to achieve political advantage. It involves the manipulation of lines drawn by leaving out or including specific sections of the district to gain the upper hand over opposing parties. By manipulating the electoral boundaries one can create a neutral, partisan and/or incumbent protected districts and attain desired electoral results for a particular party. Though gerrymandering can hinder, it can also be used to help social groups district not only political but racial, religious, class and linguistic groups as well.

U.S. Congressional District from 2000 to 2010

Like it or not redistricting is inevitability as it is specified in the United States Constitution and allows for districts to be better represented. Redistricting determines how much your elected officials listen to you on all issues, from health care to the economy. By changing the district it doesn’t allow for the constant monotony of having the district remain the same for years and years not allowing for population change that is sure to happen over the decades. It allows for changes in political and social groups over the years to be taken into comsideration paid attention to by the people in power.

The Aftermath

The 2010 elections were critical election for both the Democratic and Republican Parties. The Democrats knew in order to continue bring about the type of legislation they wanted they had to hold on to the majority rule in both the House and the Senate, because they had a difficult time passing legislation when they had control so losing it would bring about more strife. The Republicans fought most of the legislation Democrats put forward between 2008 and 2010, in order to prevent these types of bills from passing, they knew this election would have to be a must win, especially in the House. With approval ratings for the democrats on the decline Republicans saw this as their time to bring about the congressional reform they thought was needed.

Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, likely to be the next Speaker of the House

After the elections there was a great shift of power in favor of the Republicans. Congress has undergone some serious remodeling, in the Senate Republicans picked up six seats bring their total to 47, but Democrats maintain control with 53seats. The major change came around in the House of Representatives; Republicans gained control of the House by picking up 61 seats bring their new total to 240 and the Democrats to 190.

The New York Times Maps the 2010 U.S. Midterm Elections

The Democrats now have to seriously hustle before the new majority takes hold of the House if they want to put forth any policy change. Because if they don’t it will become even more difficult than before to do so. But they run the risk of burning any compromises they could put forward next year by pushing their far left agendas now before the new majority takes hold. In the end however it does look like the Democrats are going to be able to successfully be able to put forth any major policy changes for a while.

Rearview Look on Election 2010

After months of debating, campaign and fundraising, the moment candidates had been waiting for had finally arrived. On November 2, 2010 millions of Americans took time out of their day to do their civic duty, vote. Across the nations candidates cross their figures in hopes that they can out victorious, others in hopes of seeing a miracle happen.

In Arizona’s 3^rd district the race was always a heated one, a very close contest. Everyone wanted to know, who was going to win the seat of former eight-term Republican representative John Shadegg? Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican Ben Quayle threw their hats in the ring, to fight for the seat. The campaign trail was full of hot moments, scandals and a lot of attacks, but over the months became a very close race.

On Election Day all they could do now was watch and wait to see who the voters chose. After the polls closed and all 184,671 votes were tallied it was clear to everyone that Ben Quayle would be the next representative for Arizona’s 3^rd district. According to the New Times Quayle earned 96,746 votes, approximately 52.4% of the vote while Hulburd received 41.2%, 76,055 votes. All in all it was a good night for Republicans picking up 60 seats giving them 239 sets and control of the House of Representatives. According to the Arizona Central, Quayle savored the victory, saying the voters had rejected a campaign that didn't offer solutions to their problems. He stated that “They realized the negative attacks just weren't going to stick and they didn't listen to it,” that “they wanted to hear about the issues that are affecting the country right now. That's what it came down to.”

Thank You

Forecast Predicts Close Race with a Chance Surprise

Forecasting is a very useful tool in an election because it allows candidates to see where they stand with voters and allows them to see what they need to work on and who they need to focus more attention to. The forecasts are built from statistical models that account for polling, expert forecasts, fundraising data, past election returns and other indicators. Forecasting is a tool that if done correctly can hold a lot weigh and give a close estimate of the election outcome.

According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts
provided the NYTimes the race for seat in 3^rd district has gotten close. Taking into consideration the polls rate of error of plus or minus 10, in August forecasts projected Quayle would win 56.9% of the vote while Hulburd got 40.7% of the vote. In the most recent poll October 25, Quayle lead the poll with 54.7% and Hulburd has 43.2. Though it’s only a 3% gain, Hulburd is making strides and is closing the gap between him and his opponent, gaining more and more momentum in this elections, picking up support across party lines and  from independents which he is going to need.

Reporters asking Quayle for his rreaction of the new poll

According to Politico.com, recent poll done by Daily Kos, containing a sample size of 655 potential voters asked, of the candidates for Congress are Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican Ben Quayle. If the election was today, who would you vote for? 46% of the votes went to Hulburd leaving Quayle with 44%. The Daily Kos is not cream of the crop when it comes to reliable polls and so it carries no real weight in the election. Reliable polls are important in forecasting an election any inaccuracies or miscalculations can result in huge errors. Still in a majority Republican district, the result of the poll is quite surprising. But Quayle’s campaign need not fear they have lead in the polls since August and have maintained a good lead since then. As the election approaches, only a week away both Hulburd’s & Quayle’s campaigns need to focus on getting winning back voters and pulling votes from independents.

Baggage Claim in District 3

As Election Day slowly approaches everyone is putting the finishing touches on their campaign in hopes that the voters will rally their support behind them. Ben Quayle, Republican candidate for the 3^rd district of Arizona has held a huge lead over Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd  in the polls for months. Which is no so surprise since the 3^rd district is very conservative. But according to The Arizona Republic “the race between Republican Ben Quayle and Democrat Jon Hulburd could go down to the wire. Most telling are the numbers for Quayle.”

Article: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/10/20/20101020roberts1020.html

The Dirty, formely know as the Dirty Scottsdale

            The Republic goes on to say “The poll, taken by a Democratic polling firm, says that Democrats dislike him. No surprise there. But if this poll is to be believed, so do 30 percent of the Republicans in the 3rd Congressional District and 51 percent of that holy grail of politics, the independent voter.”  The poll was done by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling. It surveyed 655 likely voters and showed Hulburd and Quayle in a dead heat with 10 percent undecided. This is a big deal focusing on the fact that this seat should be floating into Republican hands. With these recent polls, Quayle’s attack ad on President Obama and his link to the Dirty Scottsdale, a racy website that was the predecessor to TheDirty.com he has a lot of extra baggage going in to Election Day.

Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi

            Jon Hulburd biggest problem or baggage right now is Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. According to the Arizona Republic “Conservative Democratic congressmen across the country are distancing themselves from the House speaker - with some even saying they won't vote for her to remain as speaker should Democrats retain control - Hulburd, 50, isn't ready to dump Pelosi to improve his chances,” the article goes on to say Hulburd is “no automatic vote for Pelosi or Obama but says he'll support Pelosi for speaker in exchange for an immediate vote on extending the Bush tax cuts, additional resources to secure the border and a commitment to growing the solar industry.” He says “I'll support her if she shows her priorities are what I consider my district's priorities, my priorities.” In the end the election will come down to who carried their baggage better during the campaign.

Knowing Your Crowd

No matter how you slice it voters are the most important thing to a candidate in an election. Voters are the ones that will give them the chance to hold the office they want. All the funds earned, phone calls made, rallies held and babies kissed during a campaign are all for the sake of impressing voters. Impressing them enough to give them the sense that you align with them whether it’s through the policies and issues they discuss or their own personal character.

How will you vote?

            In the race for the seat of 3^rd district of Arizona voters have to choose between Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican candidate Ben Quayle. But according to the polls voters have already made their decision. According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts provided by the New York Times based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators, the prediction of how the district will vote on Nov. 2.is Quayle winning with 58.0% to Hulburd 39.5% come November 2^nd. Also in the forecast is the chance each candidate will win the seat, it is based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment. It says Quayle has a 97.8% chance of winning, leaving Hulburd with 2.2%. The data and graphs can be found at http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/arizona/3. In a district where residents are predominantly republican it’s no surprise that they vote this way.

Former Vice President Ben Quayle on the Campaign Trail for his son

            Incumbency is also a great factor in a political election; In general, incumbents have structural advantages over challengers during elections. They have more name recognition, knowledge of campaign activities and greater understanding of politics. Retiring incumbent Rep. John Shadegg has sat in the seat for 14 year. As an incumbent he had more of a political advantage going in to his next election. None of the candidates in the 2010 race have held the office before so they aren’t incumbents and the general advantage that comes with incumbency doesn’t apply to them. But Ben Quayle something Hulburd doesn’t, name recognition; he is the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and it is easier for voters to bond with candidates because of their political heritage and Ben Quayle definitely has that name.