No matter how you slice it voters are the most important thing to a candidate in an election. Voters are the ones that will give them the chance to hold the office they want. All the funds earned, phone calls made, rallies held and babies kissed during a campaign are all for the sake of impressing voters. Impressing them enough to give them the sense that you align with them whether it’s through the policies and issues they discuss or their own personal character.
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| How will you vote? |
In the race for the seat of 3rd district of Arizona voters have to choose between Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican candidate Ben Quayle. But according to the polls voters have already made their decision. According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts provided by the New York Times based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators, the prediction of how the district will vote on Nov. 2.is Quayle winning with 58.0% to Hulburd 39.5% come November 2nd. Also in the forecast is the chance each candidate will win the seat, it is based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment. It says Quayle has a 97.8% chance of winning, leaving Hulburd with 2.2%. The data and graphs can be found at http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/arizona/3. In a district where residents are predominantly republican it’s no surprise that they vote this way.
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| Former Vice President Ben Quayle on the Campaign Trail for his son |
Incumbency is also a great factor in a political election; In general, incumbents have structural advantages over challengers during elections. They have more name recognition, knowledge of campaign activities and greater understanding of politics. Retiring incumbent Rep. John Shadegg has sat in the seat for 14 year. As an incumbent he had more of a political advantage going in to his next election. None of the candidates in the 2010 race have held the office before so they aren’t incumbents and the general advantage that comes with incumbency doesn’t apply to them. But Ben Quayle something Hulburd doesn’t, name recognition; he is the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and it is easier for voters to bond with candidates because of their political heritage and Ben Quayle definitely has that name.
Given that the incumbent is retiring and the two candidates running are new to the voters of the district, the voters are going to want to see who is the best fit to represent them. Or, falling into the ignorance of America, voters will just vote for whoever's name they recognize on the ballot when time comes. Ben Quayle's relationship to former vice president Dan Quayle will definitely influence the election as many of Dan Quayle's supporters are likely to vote for his son. With Quayle's name recognition advantage, Hulburd will need to fight that much harder to get his name out to the public.
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