Forecasting is a very useful tool in an election because it allows candidates to see where they stand with voters and allows them to see what they need to work on and who they need to focus more attention to. The forecasts are built from statistical models that account for polling, expert forecasts, fundraising data, past election returns and other indicators. Forecasting is a tool that if done correctly can hold a lot weigh and give a close estimate of the election outcome.
According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts
provided the NYTimes the race for seat in 3rd district has gotten close. Taking into consideration the polls rate of error of plus or minus 10, in August forecasts projected Quayle would win 56.9% of the vote while Hulburd got 40.7% of the vote. In the most recent poll October 25, Quayle lead the poll with 54.7% and Hulburd has 43.2. Though it’s only a 3% gain, Hulburd is making strides and is closing the gap between him and his opponent, gaining more and more momentum in this elections, picking up support across party lines and from independents which he is going to need.
provided the NYTimes the race for seat in 3rd district has gotten close. Taking into consideration the polls rate of error of plus or minus 10, in August forecasts projected Quayle would win 56.9% of the vote while Hulburd got 40.7% of the vote. In the most recent poll October 25, Quayle lead the poll with 54.7% and Hulburd has 43.2. Though it’s only a 3% gain, Hulburd is making strides and is closing the gap between him and his opponent, gaining more and more momentum in this elections, picking up support across party lines and from independents which he is going to need.
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| Reporters asking Quayle for his rreaction of the new poll |
According to Politico.com, recent poll done by Daily Kos, containing a sample size of 655 potential voters asked, of the candidates for Congress are Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican Ben Quayle. If the election was today, who would you vote for? 46% of the votes went to Hulburd leaving Quayle with 44%. The Daily Kos is not cream of the crop when it comes to reliable polls and so it carries no real weight in the election. Reliable polls are important in forecasting an election any inaccuracies or miscalculations can result in huge errors. Still in a majority Republican district, the result of the poll is quite surprising. But Quayle’s campaign need not fear they have lead in the polls since August and have maintained a good lead since then. As the election approaches, only a week away both Hulburd’s & Quayle’s campaigns need to focus on getting winning back voters and pulling votes from independents.
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