Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Heat In California - (First Blog Before I Changed District)

Since 1998 the first district of California has been a Democratic district, and for more than ten years incumbent and Democrat Mike Thompson has held the seat for 5 terms and has now set his sights on a 6th term in office. Rep. Thompson has easily won the elections and has had little or no problem trouble holding his seats when contested. Voters of the 1st district have come out to vote for Rep. Thompson in droves, as he has received more than 65% of the votes in the last 8 years.
Challenger and Republican Loren Hanks is seeking to defeat incumbent Mike Thompson, and claim the seat for the Republican Party. Hanks is a retired Air Force Officer from the Reagan Era, and his agenda
features the typical conservative ideals and agenda that the government is
spending too much. He feels that “big government agenda have put our economy, our prosperity and our freedoms in jeopardy,” and he believes he is the candidate to bring the 1st district out of unemployment, towards better immigration reform and a smaller government.
This lections should be an interesting one because of the fact that republicans across the nation have been picking up steam and the democrats have been losing points in the polls. But the 1st district of California has been a predominately democratic district for the past 12 years, with Rep. Mike Thompson at the helm. He has a great track record with his district, winning reelections by a landslide the past 8 years. Overall this election will come down to whom convinces the constituents that they are a better fit for the house seat. Hanks has more ground to cover being the challenger and going against an established representative with a fan base and a track record

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Drawing the Line

Redistricting is the process of redrawing state legislative and congressional political borders of its electoral districts and constituencies every 10 years based on the results of decennial U.S. census. Redistricting is very important in the U.S. politics, especially for state representatives because it changes how large or small their district will be and can potentially rearrange the political atmosphere of the district. By changing the lines of a district you can increase or decrease the number of people within a specific party in that district. People of similar political alignment tend to group together, so by changing the lines, the political energy can shift also. Now there are strict laws against how districts are rearranged, but there is still always a chance of political parties will do some form of gerrymandering to the district.
Red State...Blue State
Gerrymandering is the illegal practice of drawing district lines to the benefit of one’s political party, to achieve political advantage. It involves the manipulation of lines drawn by leaving out or including specific sections of the district to gain the upper hand over opposing parties. By manipulating the electoral boundaries one can create a neutral, partisan and/or incumbent protected districts and attain desired electoral results for a particular party. Though gerrymandering can hinder, it can also be used to help social groups district not only political but racial, religious, class and linguistic groups as well.
U.S. Congressional District from 2000 to 2010
Like it or not redistricting is inevitability as it is specified in the United States Constitution and allows for districts to be better represented. Redistricting determines how much your elected officials listen to you on all issues, from health care to the economy. By changing the district it doesn’t allow for the constant monotony of having the district remain the same for years and years not allowing for population change that is sure to happen over the decades. It allows for changes in political and social groups over the years to be taken into comsideration paid attention to by the people in power.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

The Aftermath

The 2010 elections were critical election for both the Democratic and Republican Parties. The Democrats knew in order to continue bring about the type of legislation they wanted they had to hold on to the majority rule in both the House and the Senate, because they had a difficult time passing legislation when they had control so losing it would bring about more strife. The Republicans fought most of the legislation Democrats put forward between 2008 and 2010, in order to prevent these types of bills from passing, they knew this election would have to be a must win, especially in the House. With approval ratings for the democrats on the decline Republicans saw this as their time to bring about the congressional reform they thought was needed.
Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, likely to be the next Speaker of the House
After the elections there was a great shift of power in favor of the Republicans. Congress has undergone some serious remodeling, in the Senate Republicans picked up six seats bring their total to 47, but Democrats maintain control with 53seats. The major change came around in the House of Representatives; Republicans gained control of the House by picking up 61 seats bring their new total to 240 and the Democrats to 190.

The New York Times Maps the 2010 U.S. Midterm Elections
The Democrats now have to seriously hustle before the new majority takes hold of the House if they want to put forth any policy change. Because if they don’t it will become even more difficult than before to do so. But they run the risk of burning any compromises they could put forward next year by pushing their far left agendas now before the new majority takes hold. In the end however it does look like the Democrats are going to be able to successfully be able to put forth any major policy changes for a while.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Rearview Look on Election 2010


After months of debating, campaign and fundraising, the moment candidates had been waiting for had finally arrived. On November 2, 2010 millions of Americans took time out of their day to do their civic duty, vote. Across the nations candidates cross their figures in hopes that they can out victorious, others in hopes of seeing a miracle happen.




In Arizona’s 3rd district the race was always a heated one, a very close contest. Everyone wanted to know, who was going to win the seat of former eight-term Republican representative John Shadegg? Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican Ben Quayle threw their hats in the ring, to fight for the seat. The campaign trail was full of hot moments, scandals and a lot of attacks, but over the months became a very close race.
On Election Day all they could do now was watch and wait to see who the voters chose. After the polls closed and all 184,671 votes were tallied it was clear to everyone that Ben Quayle would be the next representative for Arizona’s 3rd district. According to the New Times Quayle earned 96,746 votes, approximately 52.4% of the vote while Hulburd received 41.2%, 76,055 votes. All in all it was a good night for Republicans picking up 60 seats giving them 239 sets and control of the House of Representatives. According to the Arizona Central, Quayle savored the victory, saying the voters had rejected a campaign that didn't offer solutions to their problems. He stated that “They realized the negative attacks just weren't going to stick and they didn't listen to it,” that “they wanted to hear about the issues that are affecting the country right now. That's what it came down to.”
Thank You






Sunday, October 31, 2010

Forecast Predicts Close Race with a Chance Surprise


Forecasting is a very useful tool in an election because it allows candidates to see where they stand with voters and allows them to see what they need to work on and who they need to focus more attention to. The forecasts are built from statistical models that account for polling, expert forecasts, fundraising data, past election returns and other indicators. Forecasting is a tool that if done correctly can hold a lot weigh and give a close estimate of the election outcome.
According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts
provided the NYTimes the race for seat in 3rd district has gotten close. Taking into consideration the polls rate of error of plus or minus 10, in August forecasts projected Quayle would win 56.9% of the vote while Hulburd got 40.7% of the vote. In the most recent poll October 25, Quayle lead the poll with 54.7% and Hulburd has 43.2. Though it’s only a 3% gain, Hulburd is making strides and is closing the gap between him and his opponent, gaining more and more momentum in this elections, picking up support across party lines and  from independents which he is going to need.

Reporters asking Quayle for his rreaction of the new poll
According to Politico.com, recent poll done by Daily Kos, containing a sample size of 655 potential voters asked, of the candidates for Congress are Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican Ben Quayle. If the election was today, who would you vote for? 46% of the votes went to Hulburd leaving Quayle with 44%. The Daily Kos is not cream of the crop when it comes to reliable polls and so it carries no real weight in the election. Reliable polls are important in forecasting an election any inaccuracies or miscalculations can result in huge errors. Still in a majority Republican district, the result of the poll is quite surprising. But Quayle’s campaign need not fear they have lead in the polls since August and have maintained a good lead since then. As the election approaches, only a week away both Hulburd’s & Quayle’s campaigns need to focus on getting winning back voters and pulling votes from independents.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Baggage Claim in District 3

As Election Day slowly approaches everyone is putting the finishing touches on their campaign in hopes that the voters will rally their support behind them. Ben Quayle, Republican candidate for the 3rd district of Arizona has held a huge lead over Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd  in the polls for months. Which is no so surprise since the 3rd district is very conservative. But according to The Arizona Republic “the race between Republican Ben Quayle and Democrat Jon Hulburd could go down to the wire. Most telling are the numbers for Quayle.”
The Dirty, formely know as the Dirty Scottsdale
            The Republic goes on to say “The poll, taken by a Democratic polling firm, says that Democrats dislike him. No surprise there. But if this poll is to be believed, so do 30 percent of the Republicans in the 3rd Congressional District and 51 percent of that holy grail of politics, the independent voter.”  The poll was done by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling. It surveyed 655 likely voters and showed Hulburd and Quayle in a dead heat with 10 percent undecided. This is a big deal focusing on the fact that this seat should be floating into Republican hands. With these recent polls, Quayle’s attack ad on President Obama and his link to the Dirty Scottsdale, a racy website that was the predecessor to TheDirty.com he has a lot of extra baggage going in to Election Day.

Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi
            Jon Hulburd biggest problem or baggage right now is Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. According to the Arizona Republic “Conservative Democratic congressmen across the country are distancing themselves from the House speaker - with some even saying they won't vote for her to remain as speaker should Democrats retain control - Hulburd, 50, isn't ready to dump Pelosi to improve his chances,” the article goes on to say Hulburd is “no automatic vote for Pelosi or Obama but says he'll support Pelosi for speaker in exchange for an immediate vote on extending the Bush tax cuts, additional resources to secure the border and a commitment to growing the solar industry.” He says “I'll support her if she shows her priorities are what I consider my district's priorities, my priorities.” In the end the election will come down to who carried their baggage better during the campaign.

Friday, October 15, 2010

Knowing Your Crowd

No matter how you slice it voters are the most important thing to a candidate in an election. Voters are the ones that will give them the chance to hold the office they want. All the funds earned, phone calls made, rallies held and babies kissed during a campaign are all for the sake of impressing voters. Impressing them enough to give them the sense that you align with them whether it’s through the policies and issues they discuss or their own personal character.
How will you vote?
            In the race for the seat of 3rd district of Arizona voters have to choose between Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican candidate Ben Quayle. But according to the polls voters have already made their decision. According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts provided by the New York Times based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators, the prediction of how the district will vote on Nov. 2.is Quayle winning with 58.0% to Hulburd 39.5% come November 2nd. Also in the forecast is the chance each candidate will win the seat, it is based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment. It says Quayle has a 97.8% chance of winning, leaving Hulburd with 2.2%. The data and graphs can be found at http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/arizona/3. In a district where residents are predominantly republican it’s no surprise that they vote this way.
Former Vice President Ben Quayle on the Campaign Trail for his son
            Incumbency is also a great factor in a political election; In general, incumbents have structural advantages over challengers during elections. They have more name recognition, knowledge of campaign activities and greater understanding of politics. Retiring incumbent Rep. John Shadegg has sat in the seat for 14 year. As an incumbent he had more of a political advantage going in to his next election. None of the candidates in the 2010 race have held the office before so they aren’t incumbents and the general advantage that comes with incumbency doesn’t apply to them. But Ben Quayle something Hulburd doesn’t, name recognition; he is the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and it is easier for voters to bond with candidates because of their political heritage and Ben Quayle definitely has that name.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Parties Time In Arizona

Ben Quayle, a Republican, may be the best-known congressional candidate in the country who isn't a member of the "tea party." Ben Quayle won the nomination. He's running against the well-financed and personable Democrat Jon Hulburd on Nov. 2 to replace John Shadegg in the 3rd Congressional District. But Quayle has big issue he has to address in order to have an easier campaign. 
Senator John McCain endorsing Ben Quayel

Are his nine former opponents now willing to rally behind him? This is an important question, because they took 78 percent of the vote and presumably have some influence with their supporters. With so many candidates running the Republican Party had a lot of division especially with the candidates. Now that Quayle had the nomination would his opponents and party lobby behind him? Steve Moak, the runner hadn't decided whether to offer his support to Quayle, which no surprise is because Quayle attacked his professional reputation. According to http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/RobertLeger/97849 Quayle has gotten support from 5 other candidates like Jim Waring so stated “I will support Ben in this race. I told him I would help as he thought appropriate." LeAnn Hull said Quayle should reach out to the other candidates. "He's so young and inexperienced. He doesn't understand my struggles as a business owner or a parent. We could help him." Senator John McCain also threw in his support for Quayle saying "Ben Quayle has the kind of fighting spirit we need now more than ever in Washington.”  Needless to say Quayle is building more momentum receive endorsements from fallen party opponents, allows him to get the support of not only the candidate but there followers as well and give him more votes.
Hulburd on the other hand ran unopposed, so he has had his entire party support since day one. But still, as the Democratic candidate in a majority republican district Hulburd has his work cut out for him. He will have to cross party lines and sway some undecided voters to have a shot at the seat.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Cashing In On The Way To Congress

Iranian American PAC
Iranian American PAC


Political Action Committee or PAC are just as much a part of American politics and the political process today  as caucuses, primaries, candidates, elections and voting themselves. PAC is the name given to a private group, no matter the size that is organized or aligns themselves with a political candidate to elect that candidate to advance the outcome of a political issue or legislation.
In the 2010 Race for the seat of Arizona’s 3rd District candidates from both parties have utilized Political Action Committees funding to help them with their campaigns. Of the $1.3 million raised by the Republican candidate Ben Quayle’s campaign only $19,500 came from PACs, that’s only 1% of the total amount according to www.opensecrets.org. While Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd’s campaign received contributions from PAC’s adding up to $36,000, 5% of the $777,529 his campaigned raised in total. It makes a lot of sense that Hulburd would be receive more contributions from PAC’s because he is seen as the underdog in this race. Quayle leads him in the polls in a very republican district; he will need a lot of money to compete with favorite, to get his face seen, his plan of action heard and to level the financial playing field.
Click the link to better understand which of the top industries are giving to the candidates running for Congress in 3rd District of Arizona.  http://www.opensecrets.org/races/pacs.php?cycle=2010&id=AZ03. If you notice the PAC's Ben Quayle utilizes are the business and industrial agenda of his local community, while Hulburd has to access money from Washington based groups tofund his campaign. Which is not pariticaluar help for Hulburds campaign given recent news of him being silenct from the on Ben Quayle’s call for him to return all campaign donations and renounce endorsements from the unions that are participating in the boycott of the state of Arizona. Read me at http://www.quayleforcongress.com/2010/09/02/hulburd-still-holding-onto-union-endorsements-and-cash/.




Saturday, September 25, 2010

Political Heat Wave in Arizona

Ben Quayle on the Campaign Trail
Political Heat Wave

Political Heat Wave
            Campaign strategies are essential to running a successful campaign, how you interact with voters and portray yourself and your opponents can make or break your campaign. And even more important is how you get the voters to see you. Whether they align with you based on the issues, your personal character and how you make them view your opponents and their party.

Recently during a political ad, Ben Quayle called President Obama “the worst president ever.” And also stated that Washington need someone who would “knock the hell” out the place. These comments raise eyebrows in the Republican Party, especially those who don’t really agree with the Tea Party Movement and don’t really know how the victories for some tea party candidates will affect the Republican Party nationwide. Attacking the President will always draw controversy no matter what side you are on. You can check out Ben Quayle and his response to his statements at AZCentral. But even given this Quayle is still ahead in the polls. But by attack the President, the face of the Democratic Party, he sends a message that we can’t allow the Democrats any more leeway because they are making things worse, we can’t give them anymore power in Washington and make. He is challenging his opponent and his voting record. Quayle knows Hulburd’s alignment with Barack Obama in a majority Republican district will be hazardous to Hulburd campaign.
Jon Hulburd 'sCampaign Flyer
Jon Hulbard on the other hand is using a debate over debates method to challenge Ben Quayle. A debate over debates is what happens when an underdog in a political race challenges the front-runner to a series of debates. The front runner doesn't immediately respond to the request because, what's the point? The candidate is already in the lead so why risk a messup? And Hulburd is milking Quayle's silence for all it's worth, asking why he doesn’t want to debate? What does he have to hide? Since congressional Democrats are in danger of being swept out of office nationwide due lost faith in the Obama Administration and Democrats as a whole Hulbard will need all the tricks he can muster to stay alive in this race



Sunday, September 12, 2010

Meet Your Candidates

Since 1983 to the present Arizona’s 3rd District has had a Republican representative in the house. Dating back to Bob Stump (1983-2003), who previously was a Democrat and was the representative for the same district in (1977–1983) to John B. Shadegg (2003 – Present). When eight-term Republican Representative John Shadegg, made the surprise announcement earlier this year that he would not be seeking re-election, republicans lined up to run for the primary to try to make sure the keep this seat in a largely Republican district. Finally after a tight race between the Republican candidates, Ben Quayle was named as the republican nominee.
But the Republicans are not the only ones that see the importance of the seat in Arizona’s 3rd District. The Democrats, now more than ever realize the importance of becoming a strong presents in predominantly republican districts and acquire those seats to help propel the large amounts of change promised by the Obama administration. Businessman and Democrat Jon Hulburd, step up to the plate to be the democratic candidate which was easy since he ran unopposed. I chose this district because of the strong republican representation that the seat has had combined with the new immigration laws issued in Arizona recently.


Arizona has a large Mexican, and Latin American population a population that is still increasing. One has to assume that this portion of the voters will want to hear what the candidate’s positions are on Immigration Reform, Border Security, and Arizona State Law SB 1070 are and their views and proposed solution on these issue can either make or break their political campaign granting or taking away a large portion of votes. But even if Jon Hulburd manages to seal a large portion of the Latino population because of his proposed plans, will it be enough to combat the republican supremacy in the state of Arizona and win him the seat. A seat that has been held by a republican for the past 16 years, in a state that has voted republican in the past 3 presidential elections.


Overall this election will be closely watched by the media, and will be center of attention for both political parties. First because of the resignation of John B. Shadegg resignation, the Republican Party has had it for so long, the fact that it could become a democratic seat is news worth. Secondly immigration reform in Arizona has become a huge issue and a very controversial topic. Thirdly because of the candidates Ben Quayle the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and Jon Hulburd who is not a politician and has no real politician background, but a businessman who has thrown himself into the ring and has managed to keep it close and interest.