Forecast Predicts Close Race with a Chance Surprise

Forecasting is a very useful tool in an election because it allows candidates to see where they stand with voters and allows them to see what they need to work on and who they need to focus more attention to. The forecasts are built from statistical models that account for polling, expert forecasts, fundraising data, past election returns and other indicators. Forecasting is a tool that if done correctly can hold a lot weigh and give a close estimate of the election outcome.

According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts
provided the NYTimes the race for seat in 3^rd district has gotten close. Taking into consideration the polls rate of error of plus or minus 10, in August forecasts projected Quayle would win 56.9% of the vote while Hulburd got 40.7% of the vote. In the most recent poll October 25, Quayle lead the poll with 54.7% and Hulburd has 43.2. Though it’s only a 3% gain, Hulburd is making strides and is closing the gap between him and his opponent, gaining more and more momentum in this elections, picking up support across party lines and  from independents which he is going to need.

Reporters asking Quayle for his rreaction of the new poll

According to Politico.com, recent poll done by Daily Kos, containing a sample size of 655 potential voters asked, of the candidates for Congress are Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican Ben Quayle. If the election was today, who would you vote for? 46% of the votes went to Hulburd leaving Quayle with 44%. The Daily Kos is not cream of the crop when it comes to reliable polls and so it carries no real weight in the election. Reliable polls are important in forecasting an election any inaccuracies or miscalculations can result in huge errors. Still in a majority Republican district, the result of the poll is quite surprising. But Quayle’s campaign need not fear they have lead in the polls since August and have maintained a good lead since then. As the election approaches, only a week away both Hulburd’s & Quayle’s campaigns need to focus on getting winning back voters and pulling votes from independents.

Baggage Claim in District 3

As Election Day slowly approaches everyone is putting the finishing touches on their campaign in hopes that the voters will rally their support behind them. Ben Quayle, Republican candidate for the 3^rd district of Arizona has held a huge lead over Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd  in the polls for months. Which is no so surprise since the 3^rd district is very conservative. But according to The Arizona Republic “the race between Republican Ben Quayle and Democrat Jon Hulburd could go down to the wire. Most telling are the numbers for Quayle.”

Article: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/10/20/20101020roberts1020.html

The Dirty, formely know as the Dirty Scottsdale

            The Republic goes on to say “The poll, taken by a Democratic polling firm, says that Democrats dislike him. No surprise there. But if this poll is to be believed, so do 30 percent of the Republicans in the 3rd Congressional District and 51 percent of that holy grail of politics, the independent voter.”  The poll was done by Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling. It surveyed 655 likely voters and showed Hulburd and Quayle in a dead heat with 10 percent undecided. This is a big deal focusing on the fact that this seat should be floating into Republican hands. With these recent polls, Quayle’s attack ad on President Obama and his link to the Dirty Scottsdale, a racy website that was the predecessor to TheDirty.com he has a lot of extra baggage going in to Election Day.

Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi

            Jon Hulburd biggest problem or baggage right now is Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. According to the Arizona Republic “Conservative Democratic congressmen across the country are distancing themselves from the House speaker - with some even saying they won't vote for her to remain as speaker should Democrats retain control - Hulburd, 50, isn't ready to dump Pelosi to improve his chances,” the article goes on to say Hulburd is “no automatic vote for Pelosi or Obama but says he'll support Pelosi for speaker in exchange for an immediate vote on extending the Bush tax cuts, additional resources to secure the border and a commitment to growing the solar industry.” He says “I'll support her if she shows her priorities are what I consider my district's priorities, my priorities.” In the end the election will come down to who carried their baggage better during the campaign.

Knowing Your Crowd

No matter how you slice it voters are the most important thing to a candidate in an election. Voters are the ones that will give them the chance to hold the office they want. All the funds earned, phone calls made, rallies held and babies kissed during a campaign are all for the sake of impressing voters. Impressing them enough to give them the sense that you align with them whether it’s through the policies and issues they discuss or their own personal character.

How will you vote?

            In the race for the seat of 3^rd district of Arizona voters have to choose between Democrat Jon Hulburd and Republican candidate Ben Quayle. But according to the polls voters have already made their decision. According to the FiveThirtyEight Forecasts provided by the New York Times based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators, the prediction of how the district will vote on Nov. 2.is Quayle winning with 58.0% to Hulburd 39.5% come November 2^nd. Also in the forecast is the chance each candidate will win the seat, it is based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment. It says Quayle has a 97.8% chance of winning, leaving Hulburd with 2.2%. The data and graphs can be found at http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house/arizona/3. In a district where residents are predominantly republican it’s no surprise that they vote this way.

Former Vice President Ben Quayle on the Campaign Trail for his son

            Incumbency is also a great factor in a political election; In general, incumbents have structural advantages over challengers during elections. They have more name recognition, knowledge of campaign activities and greater understanding of politics. Retiring incumbent Rep. John Shadegg has sat in the seat for 14 year. As an incumbent he had more of a political advantage going in to his next election. None of the candidates in the 2010 race have held the office before so they aren’t incumbents and the general advantage that comes with incumbency doesn’t apply to them. But Ben Quayle something Hulburd doesn’t, name recognition; he is the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle and it is easier for voters to bond with candidates because of their political heritage and Ben Quayle definitely has that name.

Parties Time In Arizona

Ben Quayle, a Republican, may be the best-known congressional candidate in the country who isn't a member of the "tea party." Ben Quayle won the nomination. He's running against the well-financed and personable Democrat Jon Hulburd on Nov. 2 to replace John Shadegg in the 3rd Congressional District. But Quayle has big issue he has to address in order to have an easier campaign. 

Senator John McCain endorsing Ben Quayel



Are his nine former opponents now willing to rally behind him? This is an important question, because they took 78 percent of the vote and presumably have some influence with their supporters. With so many candidates running the Republican Party had a lot of division especially with the candidates. Now that Quayle had the nomination would his opponents and party lobby behind him? Steve Moak, the runner hadn't decided whether to offer his support to Quayle, which no surprise is because Quayle attacked his professional reputation. According to http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/RobertLeger/97849 Quayle has gotten support from 5 other candidates like Jim Waring so stated “I will support Ben in this race. I told him I would help as he thought appropriate." LeAnn Hull said Quayle should reach out to the other candidates. "He's so young and inexperienced. He doesn't understand my struggles as a business owner or a parent. We could help him." Senator John McCain also threw in his support for Quayle saying "Ben Quayle has the kind of fighting spirit we need now more than ever in Washington.”  Needless to say Quayle is building more momentum receive endorsements from fallen party opponents, allows him to get the support of not only the candidate but there followers as well and give him more votes.

Hulburd on the other hand ran unopposed, so he has had his entire party support since day one. But still, as the Democratic candidate in a majority republican district Hulburd has his work cut out for him. He will have to cross party lines and sway some undecided voters to have a shot at the seat.